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Capturing the Complexity of Human Strategic Decision-Making with Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding how people behave in strategic settings--where they make decisions based on their expectations about the behavior of others--is a long-standing problem in the behavioral sciences. We conduct the largest study to date of strategic decision-making in the context of initial play in two-player matrix games, analyzing over 90,000 human decisions across more than 2,400 procedurally generated games that span a much wider space than previous datasets. We show that a deep neural network trained on these data predicts people's choices better than leading theories of strategic behavior, indicating that there is systematic variation that is not explained by those theories. We then modify the network to produce a new, interpretable behavioral model, revealing what the original network learned about people: their ability to optimally respond and their capacity to reason about others are dependent on the complexity of individual games. This context-dependence is critical in explaining deviations from the rational Nash equilibrium, response times, and uncertainty in strategic decisions. More broadly, our results demonstrate how machine learning can be applied beyond prediction to further help generate novel explanations of complex human behavior.


No-Regret Learning in Time-Varying Zero-Sum Games

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Learning from repeated play in a fixed two-player zero-sum game is a classic problem in game theory and online learning. We consider a variant of this problem where the game payoff matrix changes over time, possibly in an adversarial manner. We first present three performance measures to guide the algorithmic design for this problem: 1) the well-studied individual regret, 2) an extension of duality gap, and 3) a new measure called dynamic Nash Equilibrium regret, which quantifies the cumulative difference between the player's payoff and the minimax game value. Next, we develop a single parameter-free algorithm that simultaneously enjoys favorable guarantees under all these three performance measures. These guarantees are adaptive to different non-stationarity measures of the payoff matrices and, importantly, recover the best known results when the payoff matrix is fixed. Our algorithm is based on a two-layer structure with a meta-algorithm learning over a group of black-box base-learners satisfying a certain property, along with several novel ingredients specifically designed for the time-varying game setting. Empirical results further validate the effectiveness of our algorithm.


Game Theory In Artificial Intelligence

#artificialintelligence

I want to start off with a quick question โ€“ can you recognize the two personalities in the below image? I'm certain you got one right. For most of us early age math enthusiasts, the movie "A Beautiful Mind" is inextricably embedded into our memory. Russell Crowe plays the role of John Nash in the movie, a Nobel prize winner for economics (and the person on the left-hand side above). Now, you would remember the iconic scene often regarded as: "Don't go after the blonde". "โ€ฆ.the best outcome would come when everyone in the group is doing what's best for himself and the group."


Game (Theory) for AI? An Illustrated Guide for Everyone

#artificialintelligence

I want to start off with a quick question โ€“ can you recognize the two personalities in the below image? I'm certain you got one right. For most of us early age math enthusiasts, the movie "A Beautiful Mind" is inextricably embedded into our memory. Russell Crowe plays the role of John Nash in the movie, a Nobel prize winner for economics (and the person on the left-hand side above). Now, you would remember the iconic scene often regarded as: "Don't go after the blonde". "โ€ฆ.the best outcome would come when everyone in the group is doing what's best for himself and the group."


Interpretable preference learning: a game theoretic framework for large margin on-line feature and rule learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A large body of research is currently investigating on the connection between machine learning and game theory. In this work, game theory notions are injected into a preference learning framework. Specifically, a preference learning problem is seen as a two-players zero-sum game. An algorithm is proposed to incrementally include new useful features into the hypothesis. This can be particularly important when dealing with a very large number of potential features like, for instance, in relational learning and rule extraction. A game theoretical analysis is used to demonstrate the convergence of the algorithm. Furthermore, leveraging on the natural analogy between features and rules, the resulting models can be easily interpreted by humans. An extensive set of experiments on classification tasks shows the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of interpretability and feature selection quality, with accuracy at the state-of-the-art.


A Game-Theoretic Approach to Apprenticeship Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study the problem of an apprentice learning to behave in an environment with an unknown reward function by observing the behavior of an expert. We follow on the work of Abbeel and Ng [1] who considered a framework in which the true reward function is assumed to be a linear combination of a set of known and observable features. We give a new algorithm that, like theirs, is guaranteed to learn a policy that is nearly as good as the expert's, given enough examples. However, unlike their algorithm, we show that ours may produce a policy that is substantially better than the expert's. Moreover, our algorithm is computationally faster, is easier to implement, and can be applied even in the absence of an expert. The method is based on a game-theoretic view of the problem, which leads naturally to a direct application of the multiplicative-weights algorithm of Freund and Schapire [2] for playing repeated matrix games. In addition to our formal presentation and analysis of the new algorithm, we sketch how the method can be applied when the transition function itself is unknown, and we provide an experimental demonstration of the algorithm on a toy video-game environment.


A Game-Theoretic Approach to Apprenticeship Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study the problem of an apprentice learning to behave in an environment with an unknown reward function by observing the behavior of an expert. We follow on the work of Abbeel and Ng [1] who considered a framework in which the true reward function is assumed to be a linear combination of a set of known and observable features.We give a new algorithm that, like theirs, is guaranteed to learn a policy that is nearly as good as the expert's, given enough examples. However, unlike their algorithm, we show that ours may produce a policy that is substantially better than the expert's. Moreover, our algorithm is computationally faster, is easier toimplement, and can be applied even in the absence of an expert. The method is based on a game-theoretic view of the problem, which leads naturally to a direct application of the multiplicative-weights algorithm of Freund and Schapire [2] for playing repeated matrix games. In addition to our formal presentation and analysis of the new algorithm, we sketch how the method can be applied when the transition functionitself is unknown, and we provide an experimental demonstration of the algorithm on a toy video-game environment.


A Game-Theoretic Approach to Apprenticeship Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study the problem of an apprentice learning to behave in an environment with an unknown reward function by observing the behavior of an expert. We follow on the work of Abbeel and Ng [1] who considered a framework in which the true reward function is assumed to be a linear combination of a set of known and observable features. We give a new algorithm that, like theirs, is guaranteed to learn a policy that is nearly as good as the expert's, given enough examples. However, unlike their algorithm, we show that ours may produce a policy that is substantially better than the expert's. Moreover, our algorithm is computationally faster, is easier to implement, and can be applied even in the absence of an expert. The method is based on a game-theoretic view of the problem, which leads naturally to a direct application of the multiplicative-weights algorithm of Freund and Schapire [2] for playing repeated matrix games. In addition to our formal presentation and analysis of the new algorithm, we sketch how the method can be applied when the transition function itself is unknown, and we provide an experimental demonstration of the algorithm on a toy video-game environment.